The Labor Party is still the largest by far, but the red-green side is losing its majority. In recent months, we have witnessed major shifts in the electorate. In the previous poll conducted by InFact for Nettavisen, the Labor Party experienced a sharp increase. This sudden increase was probably driven by the break in the government collaboration with the Center Party and not least Jens Stoltenberg’s much-discussed comeback as a cabinet minister.
However, the results now appear to have stabilized, and the Labor Party maintains its strong position with support of close to 30 percent. The support for most parties has remained more or less unchanged since our previous poll in early February. When we take into account the margins of error, the Red Party is the only party with a significant change since the last one.
Nevertheless, the distribution of seats between the blocs has changed. In the previous poll, the red-green side had a solid majority. They have now lost this majority, largely thanks to the Left Party creeping over the threshold. The distribution is, however, very even, with 84 seats for the red-green side and 85 for the conservatives.
The Labour Party consolidates its position
The Labour Party has managed to maintain the high support it received in the previous poll. This may indicate that the party’s strong growth after the government collapse with the Centre Party was not a fluke. The Labour Party is particularly popular among older voters (65+ years), where they have close to 40% support.
The Labour Party also has a high degree of voter loyalty. 76.1% of those who voted for the Labour Party in the last general election say they will vote for the party again. The party draws a significant number of voters from the Swedish People’s Party (SV) (23.0%) and the Social Democrats (SP) (15.2%), while the leakage to other parties is limited. The party’s biggest challenge appears to be that 9.4% of their former voters now say they either will not vote or that they are unsure which party they will vote for.
The Progress Party is still the country’s second largest party
FRP is measured at 24.1% and is the second largest party by a good margin. They have very loyal voters – 82.5% of those who voted for Frp last time say they would do so again if there were a general election tomorrow. They are drawing the most new voters from the Centre Party (22.7%) and also have a significant influx from the Conservative Party (19.5%). Frp is particularly strong among those between 18-29 years old, where they have a support of 34.1%. They are also by far the most popular party among men (32.4% compared to the Labour Party’s 24.7%).
The Conservative Party is still struggling
The Conservative Party only achieves 16.4% support. They are still far behind Frp, and the small increase is not significant with regard to the margin of error. The party has lost a lot of voters to the Frp since the last general election (a whopping 19.5%), and only holds on to 59.5% of its former voters. The Conservatives also have weak support among younger voters – only 8.5% of those between 18 and 29 years old.
The Centre Party is also struggling
The Centre Party only gets 5.4% of support and has great difficulty holding on to its voters. Only 34.1% of their former voters would vote for them if there were general elections tomorrow. The votes are leaking the most to the Frp (22.7%) and the AP (15.2%). The party has particularly weak support among younger voters – only 1.1% aged 18-29.
SV stable in the 6s
SV achieves 6.6% and has remained stable since the last poll. However, it is worth noting that they have lost a significant 23% of their former voters to the Labour Party. The party has clearly stronger support among women (9.7%) than among men (3.7%). They are particularly popular among younger voters (15.3% support in the 18-29 age group). Among those over 65, they only achieve 2.4%.
The Liberals above the threshold
The Liberals are at 4.3% and thus creep above the threshold, which is crucial for the bourgeois bloc’s mandate majority. The party has a certain leakage to the Labour Party and the Liberal Party (13% each). They are significantly stronger among younger voters – 8.5% in the 18-29 age group would vote for the Liberals if there were general elections tomorrow.
Red fights against the threshold
The Reds are down 1.4 percentage points and are now just at the threshold. This is the only significant change since InFact’s previous poll in early February. Red holds on to 57.8% of its former voters and loses most to the Labour Party (13.3%) and the Socialist Party (11.1%). The party has its largest support among voters aged 30-44 (8.5%).
The Christian Democratic Party and the Green Party below the threshold
Both the Christian Democratic Party and the Democratic Alliance remain well below the threshold, with 3.3% and 3.0% support respectively. The Democratic Alliance is most popular among younger voters (6.8% aged 18-29), but is struggling to hold on to its voters. Only 41% say they would vote for the Christian Democratic Party again. They lose the most voters to the Socialist Party (17.9%) and the Labour Party (12.8%). The Christian Democratic Party has its strongest support in Western Norway (6.5%). They hold on to 62.2% of their voters, while losing some voters to the Conservative Party (16.2%).
Conclusion
This survey suggests that the balance of power between the blocs is very even, but the conservative side has a narrow majority of seats. The Labour Party maintains its strong position after the strong growth last month, while the Liberal Party consolidates its position as the second largest party. The Conservative and Centre Parties continue to struggle, while the Liberal Party and the Red Party balance close to the threshold. With an uncertain electorate and an even balance of power between the blocs, small movements could be decisive for the political balance of power in the run-up to the election in the autumn.
Vegard Jarness
PhD and senior consultant
vegard@infact.no
